Sentinel · what it produces

Agentic AI for sovereign portfolio risk.

Five specialist agents — Portfolio, Geopolitical, Regulatory, Market, Synthesis — run in parallel under a coordinator. Inputs: GDELT-shaped events, OpenSanctions, scenario fixtures. Outputs: a citation-grade Investment Brief in two minutes.

Worked example

PIF × Strait of Hormuz Closure (100%)

$930B AUM · ~$280B Aramco stake · 11 mb/d Gulf Coast exports

Headline

Full Hormuz closure creates bifurcated shock: Aramco paper gains mask severe export-volume loss, supply-chain seizure across the domestic portfolio, and ~$25B aggregate drawdown in liquid positions.

Top risks (3)

Aramco export-volume collapse despite price super-spike
~11 mb/d Gulf Coast flow vs 7–8 mb/d Yanbu bypass. Equity marks up; dividend cash flow collapses.
Synchronized domestic infrastructure impairment
ACWA Power ~$4.5B at-risk on $18B base. NEOM contractor force-majeure. Ma’aden export halt.
OFAC counterparty contamination across UAE & HK corridors
OFAC enforcement against UAE/HK shell networks now touches Aramco’s offtake fabric directly.

Opportunity positions (2 of 5)

Crude tanker freight rates · long-haul VLCC owners
Hormuz closure forces redirect of ~17 mb/d around the Cape; voyage days lengthen; VLCC TCE rates spike.
Defense / Persian Gulf naval posture
US 5th Fleet tempo surge plus pulled-forward MENA defense procurement: missile defense, maritime ISR.

Other scenarios in the live system

Taiwan blockade · 14-day
~$20B net portfolio drawdown — bounded vs Hormuz. Transmission via gaming-hardware (Savvy + EA, $43B exposure) and Lucid automotive-chip dependency, not Aramco.
Top risk
Savvy + EA gaming-hardware: PS5 / Xbox / PC stack is TSMC-sourced; blockade compresses new-hardware revenue.
EU CBAM Phase 2 · 2027
Regulatory hit, not geopolitical. ~$25B at-risk on Aramco EU refined-product margins under embedded-carbon penalty. ACWA green-hydrogen is the asymmetric offset.
Top risk
Saudi refining stack is 14–30% higher carbon-intensity than EU baseline → ~7–12% effective cost penalty on EU-bound product.

What the live system adds

›Click-through citations on every claim (176 in the demo set, 0 unresolved).
›Per-risk rank decomposition: geopolitical / market / regulatory / portfolio attribution.
›Three sovereign funds (PIF, Mubadala, L’IMAD/ex-ADQ) × four scenarios (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Taiwan, EU CBAM Phase 2).
›Cached briefs for instant browsing, or fire the full agent stack live.

Open on desktop for the full system

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